Which cantons surprise in foreclosure auctions — and why

Why "Surprise Cantons" Exist in the Auction Market

Those who only look at the absolute number of forced auctions mainly see populous cantons. It becomes interesting with two additional lenses: the auction rate per 100,000 inhabitants (density) and the ticket sizes (average values/volume). This is exactly where cantons appear that many investors do not have on their radar – and which stand out especially positively in 2024.

Three Perspectives for Real Market Intelligence

• Deal Flow (absolute): Where do the most lots enter the market (e.g. TI, VD, BE)?
• Density (per capita): Where is the auction activity relative to the population highest (e.g. TI, JU, VS, SO, GL)?
• Ticket Values: Where do premium locations lead to high average prices despite low density (e.g. ZH, GE, ZG, SZ, LU)?

---

The Picture for 2024 at a Glance

• Total Market: about 610 auctions, volume ≈ 671 million CHF; seasonality with peaks in June and October.
• Top Absolute: TI (~114), VD (~77), BE (~68), VS (~54), SO (~43).
• Top Per Capita: TI (~32.6), JU (~17.8), VS (~15.9), SO (~15.6), GL (~12.2), VD (~9.3).
• Rare/No Cases: OW (~1), AR (~2), AI/SH (0).

The Biggest Surprises – and Their Logic

Canton	What is the Surprise?	Market Logic Behind It	Concrete Approach
TI	Combined rank 1 in absolute and per capita.	Wide mix of objects (condominiums/single-family homes, recreational properties), active publication practice.	Pipeline strategy with multiple files in parallel; prioritize June/October.
JU	High density despite a small base.	Small market, often fewer bidders, realistic entry prices.	Opportunistic bids, short due diligence process, focus on utility value rather than gloss.
GL	Regularly high per capita.	Catch-up potential in inventories; micro-location determines exit liquidity.	Strict micro-location review, Capex discipline, involve notaries early.
SO	Above-average density and steady deal flow.	Central location, solid demand, good comparability of rents.	Value-add strategies (envelope/technical building), exit into regional investor demand.
VD	Many cases and robust average values for single-family homes.	Western Swiss demand, proximity to lakes/cities; heterogeneous price range.	Selectively high tickets; ideal benchmarks for condominiums/single-family homes.
ZH	Low density but high ticket values.	Core/premium locations, scarce lots, strong competition.	Engage with bank term sheet early; price premium ESG as an exit driver.
GE	Relatively few cases per capita, very valuable lots.	Scarcity, international buyer base, urban prime locations.	Strict bidding discipline; focus on location quality and third-party usability.

“Contrast Cantons”: Rare Lots, High Values

Alongside ZH and GE, ZG, SZ, and LU are among the cantons where few but expensive auctions occur. For investors focused on value retention, these regions are interesting – despite lower frequency of hits.

---

Drivers Behind the Patterns: Five Reasons Why Cantons Surprise

1. Object Mix: A high share of condominiums/single-family homes increases case numbers; villas/multi-family homes drive average values (VD strong in single-family homes, ZH/GE strong in value).
2. Recreational & Second Home Share: VS, GR, TI regularly show high activity and ticket values.
3. Economy/Population: A high population reduces per capita rates (e.g. ZH), without diminishing absolute opportunities.
4. Publication Practice & Timing: Enforcement offices bundle dates (June/October) – those who are prepared here scale faster.
5. Capex/ESG Backlog: In value-add cantons (SO, AG, TG, FR, NE), attractive entry points arise from renovation needs.

Moves According to Canton Profile

• Pipeline Cluster (High Deal Flow): TI, VD, BE, VS, SO – multiple files in parallel, standardized due diligence.
• Per Capita Champions (Density Beats Size): JU, GL – smaller bidder pools, quick decisions.
• Premium/Core Regions: ZH, GE, ZG, SZ, LU – incorporate quality, ESG, and exit capability into the calculation.
• Alpine Recreational Markets: GR, VS, TI – check second home rights/planning rights early.

From Insight to Award: Discipline in Bidding

// Per Capita Metric
Rate = (Number of Auctions in Canton / Population) * 100000

// Maximum Bid (Property)
MaxBid = NOI / Target-CapRate
- (immediate Capex + transaction costs)
- safety margin

1. Set Monitoring: Alerts for TI, JU, VS, SO, GL; selectively filter in ZH/GE.
2. Utilize Seasonality: Fix due diligence/financing until spring, actively leverage peak months.
3. Match Object Mix: Owner-occupier/flip → condominium/single-family home; holders → multi-family/commercial; developers → properties.
4. Realistic Capex: Shell/technical installations, fire protection, PV/heating – leverage for lettability and exit.

FAQ: Surprises in the Canton Comparison

• Why are ZH/GE relatively "weak" per capita? Many inhabitants lower the rate – however, the few lots are often of high value.
• What makes JU/GL attractive? High density, sometimes less competition, realistic prices – ideal for disciplined buyers.
• How stable are these patterns? Consistently over several years: south/west strong in deal flow, small cantons with high density, centers with premium values.

“Surprise cantons arise when one considers density, ticket value, and timing together – there, prepared bidders win more often and at better prices.”