How the foreclosure market is developing in Switzerland

Forced auctions, officially known as mortgage enforcement sales, were long a niche segment of the Swiss real estate market. In the meantime, they are gaining strategic importance: for investors as a discount entry point, for municipalities as a tool to reactivate problematic properties, and for banks for rapid enforcement of claims. This article analyzes recent trends (2015-2024*), identifies the drivers, and ventures a forecast until 2030.

*2024: provisional values (as of June 2025)

1 Long-term Development: 2015-2024*

Year	Number of Auctions	Δ compared to previous year
2015	5,321	-
2018	5,657	Ø +1.7% p.a. (2016-18)
2020	5,926	COVID delay, +1.2%
2022	6,123	+3.3%
2024*	6,420	+4.8% (prov.)

Source: BFS Enforcement and Bankruptcy Statistics, cantonal official reports. *2024: preliminary total number.

Interpretation: Since 2015, the volume has risen moderately (Ø +2.1% p.a.). The momentum has noticeably intensified after the interest rate turnaround (from Q3 2022) and inflation-driven household burdens.

2 Where is the Growth?

Major Centers (Zurich, Bern, Lausanne)
• Increase 2021-24: approx. +11%
• Main driver: Interest rate rise → faster bank enforcements.
Tourist Regions (Valais, Graubünden, Ticino)
• approx. +8%
• Driver: Second home law (Lex Weber) restricts new builds → older renovation cases end up at auction.
Industrial Cantons (Jura, Schaffhausen)
• approx. +6%
• Driver: Structural change in industries, SME bankruptcies.

Estimates according to cantonal annual reports 2021-2024.

3 Changing Buyer Structure

Family Offices & Private Equity
specifically invest in multi-family homes (portfolio deals > 20 million CHF).
Cooperatives
use auctions to secure affordable housing.
DIY Renovators
from the millennial generation focus on rustic properties and tiny-house conversions in mountain valleys.

4 Price Discounts: 2015 vs. 2024*

2015: Ø discount 9.5% (apartments), 13% (single-family homes).
2024*: Ø discount 11.0% (apartments), 14% (single-family homes).

*2024: Average from court records Q1-Q4/2024, data set n = 412.

Causes:
1. Rising financing costs → fewer bidders.
2. Increased renovation backlog in older properties.
3. Professionalization of large players pushes inexperienced newcomers out.

5 Game-Changers: Digitization & ESG Pressure

5.1 Online Auctions

The partial revision of the Debt Collection and Bankruptcy Act (in parliamentary consultation, draft 2022) allows for electronic bids for the first time. Since 2024, cantonal pilot platforms for movable goods (e.g., Basel-Stadt "eGant") have been running. Real estate pilots, according to the BJ roadmap, are realistic not until 2026 at the earliest.

5.2 ESG Compliance

The proposed revision of the CO₂ law (draft 2025) discusses increased proof obligations for large buildings (> 1,000 m² net floor area). However, a binding renovation roadmap has not yet been decided. Buyers are already factoring in future energy investments into their bids, thereby increasing discounts on energetically weak properties.

6 Forecast: Three Scenarios

Base Scenario (W-shaped economy)

Auctions will rise moderately to around 7,000 p.a. by 2030.
Discounts will stabilize, yields will remain attractive for bidders with renovation and energy expertise.

Stress Scenario (SNB interest rate +2% until 2026)

Volume ≈ 8,500, discounts ≥ 20%, opportunities for cash-rich players, but increased vacancy risks outside the metropolitan areas.

Green Boost (subsidy offensive)

Massive subsidies halve renovation costs, demand for older buildings rises, discounts fall below 10%.

7 What Does This Mean for Investors?

Liquidity Trumps: the legal 20-day payment deadline (§ 156 II SchKG) remains online tools shorten the information phase rather than the payment phase.
Focus on Energy Leverage: building envelope & technology will determine future market viability.
Regional Diversification: city cash flow plus mountain region value-add smooths out risk.

8 Conclusion: A Market Matures and Rewards Know-how

The Swiss forced auction market is growing slowly but steadily and is visibly professionalizing. Those who have a grip on financing, renovation, and regulations will continue to find attractive entry prices here, especially in energy renovations and in regions undergoing structural change. The key remains data-driven due diligence and a flexible strategy that combines capital, building know-how, and ESG.